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Fall 2017 likely to close in on top 25 driest falls since 1899

If November were to end this weekend, it would be the sixth driest November ever recorded in Columbia. This dry pattern has been with us through the latter half of the fall months, as the upper level flow became more zonal.

This zonal flow has been persistent through a good portion of the month, which has led to the dry conditions. Due to the zonal or westerly flow, most of our upper-level disturbances track in from the Pacific Northwest. While ripe with moisture, as the disturbances track across the Rockies they become a drier air mass. By the time it arrives in Mid-Missouri, the atmosphere is squeezing out what little moisture is left.

This had led to what will be one of the driest Novembers on record, with the month closing in at under .50 inches of rain. With the end to meteorological fall just a few days away, the lack of rain will likely come in as a top 25 driest season. As of now, the fall months have only seen 6.29 inches of rain. This is enough to place Fall 2017 as the 21st driest fall since record keeping began in 1889.

As the dry conditions continue, parts of Mid-Missouri are beginning to see a severe drought develop. Areas near I-44 and south are the hardest-hit areas when it comes to the lack of rain. Areas north near I-70 and to the west aren’t hit as hard, due to the wet spring that led to flooding across the area.

Unfortunately rain is looking sparse over the next week or two, with the only chance coming through the middle of next week. Thanks to a weak cold front, we’ll see the chance for some isolated showers. However, it’s not looking promising in the drought department, as it’s likely we’ll pick up less than .25 inch.

There is good news though for the weeks ahead. As we begin to transition into December, it’s looking possible that we’ll see a pattern shift and more moisture will lead to some rain across Mid-Missouri.

Stay with ABC 17 News as we continue to monitor the drought conditions in Mid-Missouri and follow us on Twitter @ABC17Stormtrack

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