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Strong to severe storms and falling temperatures this weekend

We’ll go from air conditioning to heat this weekend as a strong cold front moves through Saturday night, bringing big changes in our weather. The weekend will start off with a few showers north of I-70 Saturday morning followed by a warm, breezy afternoon. It will feel like summer as highs climb into the upper 80s and humidity climbs with southerly winds increasing to 15 mph.

A line of storms will develop ahead of the cold front in northwestern Missouri Saturday afternoon and move southeast through the evening, arriving in Mid-Missouri 7-8 PM near HWY 65 and to HWY 63 including Columbia & Jefferson city close to 10 PM. Rain will continue to develop along and just behind the cold front and gradually shift to near I-44, ending early Sunday morning.

There is ample moisture, wind shear and instability early Saturday evening which will lead to strengthening storms. Numerous severe storms with damaging wind, large hail or a tornado are expected in the Enhanced Risk area which includes Saline, Chariton, Randolph, Macon and northern Howard county with a sightly lower chance of severe storms farther south. Heading further into the evening, instability decreases and we’ll have a lower threat of severe storms with time.

Heavy rain is likely with some of the storms and most areas are expected to pick up a half inch to an inch of rainfall with local amounts of up to an inch and a half possible. The fast movement of the cold front will keep the flood threat minimal, although localized flooding will be possible.

Much cooler air moves in Saturday night with gusty northwesterly winds behind the cold front. Skies will quickly clear out Sunday but it will stay cool with temperatures in the 50s much of the afternoon. Sunday night will be the coolest night yet this season as we dip to near 40 degrees, with upper 30s possible north of I-70.

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