What a possible La Nia could mean for fall in Mid-Missouri

One doesn’t have to look to far in the archives to find the last La Niña that affected Mid-Missouri. We would only have to flip the pages to last year when a weak La Niña took place.

While each ENSO is different in the regards of how it affects the weather, we can get a general idea of what to expect as we head into the coming months. Right now it’s entirely too early to tell if a La Niña will develop, but if it does this could mean a dry spell for this fall.

A La Niña is nothing more than the cooling of waters in the east-central Equatorial Pacific. They typically form ever three to five years, but it’s not uncommon to see one back-to-back.

In the last two weeks NOAA issued a La Niña watch, with a 60 percent chance of one developing by Midwinter. While it’s entirely to early to tell how strong the La Niña will be and how it will affect our weather, we can get a general idea of how our fall will play out.

Data over the last 30 years shows that only 9 La Niña’s have taken place in the Pacific Basin, with a good majority of those impacting our fall weather.

Data since 1986: Average rain (9.73)

77 percent of the time during a developing La Nina fall precipitation is below average for Mid-Missouri, with temperatures at or above average 66 percent of the time. It’s a trend that is beginning to show in the Midwest. Here in Columbia the rain deficit is nearing two inches, and temperatures are nearly four degrees above average.

With this trend likely to hold, it’s quite plausible that this fall will be an abnormally warm and dry one here in Mid-Missouri. The CPC has already issued an outlook showing a good chance of seeing above average temperatures through the end of the year. If this were to hold and the La Niña were to develop, our winter cold snap will likely arrive at the start of next year.

For the latest on changing weather and the winter outlook, stay tuned to ABC 17 News and follow us on Twitter @ABC17Stormtrack.