Sunday Morning Harvey Update

At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was
located near latitude 29.0 North, longitude 97.6 West. Harvey is
moving toward the south-southeast near 1 mph (2 km/h), and a
slow southeastward to east-southeastward motion is expected over the
next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center will remain
inland or move very near the coast of southeastern Texas through
Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
Harvey is likely to become a tropical depression by tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center. An NOS site near the entrance to Matagorda Bay
recently reported sustained winds of 40 mph (65 km/h) with a gust to
53 mph (85 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce additional rain
accumulations of 15 to 25 inches over the middle and upper Texas
coast through Thursday. Isolated storm totals may reach around
40 inches in this area. These rains are currently producing
catastrophic and life-threatening flooding, and flash flood
emergencies are in effect for portions of southeastern Texas.
Please see warnings and products issued by your local National
Weather Service office for additional information on this
life-threatening situation.

Elsewhere during the same time period, Harvey is expected to produce
total rain accumulations of 5 to 15 inches farther south toward the
lower Texas coast, farther west toward the Texas Hill Country, and
farther east through southwest and central Louisiana. A list of
rainfall observations compiled by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center
can be found at: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Port Aransas to Port O’Connor…1 to 3 ft
Port O’Connor to Sargent…2 to 4 ft
Sargent to High Island including Galveston Bay…1 to 3 ft
High Island to Morgan City…1 to 2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near the
area of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large
and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in an area near the
center and over portions of the tropical storm warning area along
the coast. These conditions are likely to persist through this
morning.

SURF: Swells generated by Harvey affecting the coasts of Texas
and Louisiana should subside through this morning. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight near
the middle and upper Texas coast into far southwest Louisiana.