The potential for flash flooding this weekend

The start of the weekend will be dry, but as we head through the day on Saturday, mid-Missouri will see an increasing chance for storms. Storms will develop and track in from the west by Saturday afternoon. The heaviest and most widespread rainfall will hold off until the overnight hours on Saturday.

A warm front lifting in mid-Missouri will allow for plenty of moisture to be pumped in from the Gulf of Mexico as winds shift out of the southwest. This slow moving storm system will bring moderate to heavy rainfall and will likely cause ‘training’, or repeated downpours over the same area. Rainfall totals could be in excess of 2-3″.

It’s hard to pinpoint the exact location of the heaviest rainfall, but it will likely be along the axis of the low level jet. The low level jet is a jet stream where we see strong winds out of the southwest through the overnight hours, which pumps in plenty of moisture in allowing for ample storm development. It’s often difficult to predict the set up of the low level jet, but as of right now it’s looking like greatest rainfall totals will be along the Kansas, Missouri border. Here in mid-Missouri, areas west of Highway 63 can expect rainfall totals ranging from 2-2.5″.

With this heavy rainfall we will see a risk for flash flooding. A good portion of Mid-Missouri will see flash flood watches go into effect as we head into Saturday morning. Once these storms fire up, flash flooding could occur quickly, with an even greater risk for flooding along streams, creeks, and rivers. Flash flooding could lead to very dangerous situations as you head out the door. Be aware of these rapidly changing conditions.

The current U.S. drought monitor shows abnormally dry conditions in northern Macon County, as well as southern mid-Missouri. Rainfall accumulated this weekend could help improve these dry conditions. Stay up to date on this weekend’s storm system with the ABC 17 Stormtrack Weather Team on air and online.