Very active weather pattern for this week

For the start of this week we will see some dry time, but a very active weather pattern will shape up by Wednesday. Tuesday will remain dry, sunny, and mild until Wednesday where we will see the start of the unsettled weather pattern.

Winds out of the south will help moisture build in mid-Mo as upper level winds become zonal. This will allow for several rounds of thunderstorms to impact the area with each passing disturbance. Wednesday afternoon a surface front will begin to drop allowing for spotty showers and thunderstorms mainly north of I-70. As the front moves into northern mid-Mo it will stall, which will allow for potentially heavy rainfall, especially to the north of I-70.

Wednesday evening into Thursday we will continue to see several rounds of thunderstorms. This brings us a severe threat for northeastern mid-Missouri. There is a slight and marginal risk possible. As of now the threats with this include potentially damaging wind and large hail.

Eventually the boundary will shift to the south allowing for a continued chance of thunderstorms into Friday. With the slow progression of this system flash flooding could be an issue. All the way into the weekend models are showing a continued chance for storms as the front finally moves off to the southeast.

By the end of the week greatest rainfall totals are looking to be north of I-70. Amounts could be up to 3 inches or greater. After this week we see a continued chance for above average rainfall. The precipitation outlook is showing a chance for above average rainfall from June 30 – July 4.