Severe storm threat Monday evening

The chance of thunderstorms increases Monday evening as moisture increases ahead of a developing surface low pressure area to our west. Gulf moisture will stream northward ahead of this system with increasing instability Monday evening and overnight. Instability will be fairly low but moderate wind shear will help sustain stronger storms. There is still some uncertainty as to how many storms will be able to develop but those that do could strengthen enough to produce large hail and isolated strong wind gusts.

Areas with the better chance of a severe storm are along and southeast of I-44 where there is a slight risk of severe storms. Areas farther north are in a marginal threat which means there is a lower threat for severe weather, while the threat is still there.

For a storm to be classified as severe it needs to have one or more of the following: wind gusts of 58 mph or greater, hail 1 inch or greater in diameter or a tornado. Large hail is the primary threat Monday evening. Isolated strong wind gusts are also possible.