Fall-like weather coming to a city near you
37 days, that’s how long we have until Astronomical Fall begins, or the Fall Equinox. It occurs every year in September, and marks the moment the sun crosses the celestial equator – the imaginary 0 line on our globe. From that moment on, we begin our journey on the downward trend, temperature wise. It’s August, so why are we talking about this now? Well, for those who are looking for a break from summer, a nice fall-like pattern is coming to Mid-Missouri.
THE SETUP:
The start of the work week has been particularly cool for mid-August, considering our average high is 88 and we only topped out in the upper 70s. This cool pattern has been associated with a stalled out boundary that has wrecked havoc across a good portion of the US, especially Louisiana. Mid-Missouri is on the north side of the boundary, where moisture has been wrapping around out of the north pulling in cool air. This has lead to a very gray and gloomy day, with highs in the 70s. This boundary will exit stage right and set up the pattern for the brief fall spell to arrive. A cold front tracking out of Canada will be digging its way through the states, bringing a blast of “cooler” weather by the end of the work week. This will allow a Canadian High to build in on the backside of the front and continuously pump in cooler and drier air, keeping highs about 5-10 degrees below average through the end of the month. While July was above average for temperatures and precipitation, we’ll end August on a cooler note, with below average temperatures as well as above average rainfall.
THE OUTLOOK:
The Climate Prediction Center released their 14 day outlook for temperatures and precipitation, as seen in the images attached. The CPC has a bulls eye over the heart of the Midwest, where there is a 70% chance of below average temperatures to close out August. Below average for this time of year would keep our highs below 86. In addition, thanks to a series of shortwaves sweeping through with this boundary, above average precipitation is expected as well. It’s no surprise that July was a wet month, but August has been as well. As of August, 15th, Columbia Regional Airport has already received 270% of it’s normal total for this time in August. (5.14″ received of the average 1.90″). The CPC is keeping this trend to close out August, with a 40-50% chance of seeing above average rainfall through the end of the month (1.29″ is average). Right now August 2016 ranks as the 32nd wettest August ever, but only 2.5″ separates us from being a top 10 wettest August.
THE RESULT:
With each new model run that comes in, the trend is that we’ll see a few days in the 70s as we head into next week. Recognizing patterns is a key component to weather forecasting, and this pattern has been holding steady for some time. Don’t expect it to stick around though, because summer is still here and the temperatures will return to warm and muggy conditions.
For now though, enjoy the little treat that Mother Nature has in the works as we close out the month of August.
