An approaching upper level system over the course of the next week, could potentially bring Mid-Missouri the first real threat of severe weather this Spring. While we saw some storms track across the region most of this week, the threat remained negligent at best, due to the lack of ingredients and a relatively stable air mass from the ground up. As the rather impressive low treks into Illinois, we’ll finally see drier conditions and sunny skies for the weekend.
Beginning tonight into early Friday, a cold front will be sagging through the Plains into Mid-Missouri. This front will usher in cooler and drier air with high pressure building in on the backside of it. As the high pressure strengthens and shifts to the east, we’ll see a rather impressive return of warmth, but not so much when it comes to moisture. This warmth will be felt as we head into the weekend, with highs in the upper 70s to near 80 and Sunday in the 80s.
With that being said, at the same time a surface looks to develop across Montana. The surface low with an associated cold front will track to the southeast over the course of the first part of the week, bringing cooler conditions and showers and storms. While strong storms aren’t ruled out Sunday night into Monday, it’s looking less likely due to the lack of moisture that will be available, however that all changes as we head into the middle of next week. The associated cold front mentioned above will lift northward as a warm front and bring above average warmth. Not only that, but we’ll tap into some moisture from the Gulf States. As this happens a secondary low will develop in eastern Colorado (more commonly known as a Colorado Low). This low will trek across the Great Plains and will have plenty of moisture, instability, and warmth to tap into.
As this system is nearly a week out, things can and will change, but as we are entering the heart of severe weather season, now is the time to take notice. The Storm Prediction Center already has an outlook out for Day 6. The ABC Stormtrack Weather Team will keep you updated on this potential event as we head into the coming days. For now, stay weather aware.