Possible Tracks of Hurricane Joaquin

Each of these lines represents a ‘member’ or projected path of the center of the storm from different models. Per the initial conditions this morning, the 10 best members projected paths of Joaquin. The image is called a spaghetti plot. The closer the lines or members are to each other, the greater confidence there is in the projected path. Notice the members are very close to each other, well off the coast of North and South Carolina. While, as they get track further north towards the Delmarva Peninsula, they diverge some. The divergence tells us uncertainty. One member has the center low tracking over Virginia, another up through West Virginia and Pennsylvania. Many of the members show the center track inching over the Delmarva Peninsula (where Superstorm Sandy hit), then tracking towards the New England region. From these members, we could project a higher confidence the track of Joaquin could reach the eastern seaboard later this weekend and early next week.

A forecast model this morning, showed possible remnants of Joaquin reaching Mid-Missouri by Saturday night and early Sunday, while there is still much uncertainty with this. -Meteorologist Brittany Beggs