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2015 Spring Weather Forecast

The weather pattern hasn’t changed much in the past year except to the transition from a weak La Nina condition last spring to a weak El-Nino condition this spring.

When we talk about an El Nino pattern, we are referring to the shift in the upper level winds due to warmer than normal water in the equatorial Pacific.

However, when that water is cooler than normal, we call the weather pattern it causes a La Nina.

The latest sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are warmer than average, producing a weak El-Nino which is expected to persist through summer 2015.

This is a chart showing El-Nino months in red and La Nina in blue. Notice the stretch of near neutral or very weak conditions in the past two years, which is forecast to continue into the summer. Forecast models project the weak El Nino persisting into the next few months.

Looking back to years with similar patterns, we find that a weak or neutral condition does not have an effect on our summer weather.

However, during years when we have a noticeable change in the pattern, such as 2010-2012, our summers tend to swing farther from normal.

With the weather pattern changing little in the next few months, we can expect our spring and summer weather to follow closer to the 30-year averages. While we can still have daily extreme temperature and rainfall, spring and summer 2015 are expected to come in near average overall.

After a cool spell in late March and the first week of April, we expect to transition back to a warm pattern with increasing storm changes starting the second week of april.

The water in the Gulf of Mexico is currently warmer than normal with a pocket of warm water south of Louisiana which will provide warm, moist air to feed north into storm systems as they move across the central U.S., possibly resulting in stronger storms with higher rainfall amounts this spring.

Also, looking at the current drought conditions as we head into spring, we have normal soil moisture and are not in abnormally dry conditions. This could also play a part in fueling storms with more moisture for better development and higher rainfall.

Therefore, we expect spring 2015 to come in wetter than normal.

Normally, our severe weather season ramps up in April and is most active in May, lingering into the first half of June which we expect to hold true this spring.

March will stay quiet and end with cooler than normal temperatures, with a round of light rain or snow.

April will get off to a chilly start but transition to warmer weather by mid-month with storms becoming more likely along with the chance of heavy rain.

Heading into May, the warmth will become more noticeable and it will be an active severe weather month with a few rounds of severe weather possible.

Summer looks fairly normal with slightly above normal with slightly above normal rain in June and near normal in July and August with our hottest period in August.

The overall summer temperature will come in slightly above average. Although we will have some dry periods this summer, drought is not expected to develop as temperature and rainfall will stay close to normal.

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