El Niño has broken Atlantic hurricanes. Now the season is breaking records
By Meteorologist Chris Dolce, CNN
(CNN) — No hurricanes have formed in the Atlantic Ocean 103 days into the season, a new record-long wait driven by a beast of an El Niño strangling fledgling storms.
Until today, September 11 was the date of the latest first hurricanes — Gustav (2002) and Humberto (2013). Or at least, the latest we know with confidence since 1966, when satellites started tracking hurricanes more accurately.
The first hurricane is now more than a month overdue, and there are no prospects for one in the foreseeable future.
Thursday marked the statistical peak of the season, and with just five short-lived tropical storms to date, it is now also the least active one since 1950, according to Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane expert with Colorado State University.
The only system that made a run at becoming a hurricane was tiny Tropical Storm Edouard on September 1. Edouard was 14 mph shy of hurricane strength and intensifying when it made landfall near the Texas-Louisiana border, cutting it off from the Gulf’s warm water fuel.
Looking forward, just over 50% of the entire season’s activity typically occurs after September 10, but El Niño will likely have a say in stifling the Atlantic’s final stretch this year.
Last year’s first hurricane showed up in mid-August, and three more spun up in the second half of September. The United States managed to avoid a hurricane landfall last year — if the current quiet season repeats that, it’ll be the first back-to-back years without a hurricane landfall since 2009 and 2010.
But it’s worth noting that hurricanes can find windows of opportunity to develop even in the most inactive years – and not a single season since 1966 has gone by without one. Most notably, Category 5 Hurricane Andrew’s catastrophic South Florida landfall in August 1992 happened in a season with just seven storms.
El Niño’s hurricane shredder
September is hurricane season’s peak because storm-fueling warm water is at its most expansive and hottest alongside ripe atmospheric factors. About two to three hurricanes develop this month on average.
The results can be dangerous, as 2024’s Helene and 2022’s Ian proved, slamming the US Gulf Coast as Category 4s.
Water temperatures are warm enough for hurricanes right now, but El Niño-fueled wind shear, aka tropical-system kryptonite, has soured the situation.
Wind shear involves changes in wind speed and direction at different levels of the atmosphere, and it can shred apart anything from budding tropical systems to fully developed hurricanes.
The shear has been record-strong this summer across the Atlantic’s so-called main development region, which extends from Africa through the Caribbean, according to Klotzbach. Many storms get their start in this region at the height of the season — mid-August to early October — but this year it’s been nearly shutdown.
Tropical Storm Dolly is the only system that has formed in this part of the ocean so far in 2026, and a wall of wind shear ripped it apart just 24 hours later. A few other systems have tried to develop, but were also defeated by shear.
El Niño’s storm-killing winds will remain an obstacle for development in hurricane season’s back stretch, though that’s no reason to get complacent.
Plus, late-season storms tend to develop closer to the US, including in the Gulf and off the Southeast coast. Those areas tend to be affected less by El Niño’s wind shear, so they’ll be watched closely.
And as we’ve already learned this year, it doesn’t take a hurricane-strength system to cause significant impacts, particularly in a warming world making tropical systems wetter.
Tropical Storm Arthur’s remnants fueled widespread flooding along the central Gulf Coast in June. Cottonport, Louisiana, was drenched by 29.06 inches of rain in 24 hours, which obliterated the previous state record of 22 inches set back in 1962. The record is still being reviewed and certified.
Heavy rain from Tropical Storm Edouard less than two weeks ago resulted in dangerous flash flooding and water rescues in eastern Texas. A month’s worth of rain fell in an hour and rainfall totals topped 20 inches in some areas north of Beaumont.
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