Hurricane Lowell makes final turn toward Hawaii as islands brace for impacts
By Meteorologist Tyler Ory, CNN
(CNN) — Hawaii is under a state of emergency as powerful Hurricane Lowell takes aim at the state, with impacts starting Monday. It’s the third storm in just over three weeks to target Hawaii, as El Niño supercharges the Pacific hurricane season.
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Lowell is a Category 3 hurricane with winds of 125 mph, traveling northwest at 6 mph early Sunday morning, according to the National Hurricane Center. It has fluctuated between categories as it undergoes the normal cycling of a major hurricane.
The storm is forecast to be near Category 2 strength when it makes its closest approach to Hawaii. Lowell’s center is expected to pass within about 130 miles west of Niihau, or 170 miles west of Kauai, from later Monday night through Tuesday morning, according to the hurricane center.
That distance keeps the worst of the hurricane’s winds offshore, but Hawaii will still feel Lowell’s effects through dangerous surf and heavy rain.
Over the past several days, Lowell has been trapped underneath a weak upper-level area of high pressure, which has acted as a force field for Hawaii, forcing the storm to keep traveling west and stay south of the islands.
But that high-pressure system will weaken this weekend as a trough of cold air dives in from the north Pacific and interacts with a nearby area of low pressure. Freed from the high pressure’s influence, Lowell will make a dramatic right turn — swinging north to scrape by Hawaii’s western islands.
The setup bears a resemblance to 1992’s Hurricane Iniki, which came ashore on Kauai as a Category 4 hurricane and remains Hawaii’s worst storm on record. But this time, Lowell is forecast to stay far enough offshore to avoid a direct hit.
Hawaii Gov. Josh Green declared a state of emergency for the entire state on Thursday to free up state resources and activate Hawaii National Guard units. Six high-water vehicles are also being deployed to Kauai, he said.
Tropical storm watches were issued for the islands of Kauai and Niihau on Sunday, meaning tropical storm conditions with winds over 39 mph are possible within the following 48 hours. Tropical storm-force winds will likely be confined to the western islands.
Swells from Lowell are already producing hazardous surf across the state, and a high surf advisory is in effect for south-facing shores. Waves could reach up to 14 feet through Sunday afternoon, according to the National Weather Service in Honolulu.
Heavy rain will threaten the entire state. Lowell is forecast to drop 4 to 6 inches of rain on Kauai, Niihau and the Big Island, with isolated totals of up to 10 inches possible. Lower amounts of 2 to 4 inches are forecast for Oahu, Molokai, Lanai and Maui, but those islands could see up to 8 inches in the mountainous areas.
The National Hurricane Center has warned of “significant flash flooding and mudslides,” especially in steep terrain.
El Niño is helping fuel increased storm potential in the central Pacific this year, warming ocean temperatures in the region and weakening storm-killing upper-level winds, on top of an ocean already warming from climate change.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has forecast an above-average central Pacific season, with five to 13 cyclones expected.
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