62 million people under threat of major winter storm set to deliver season’s most significant blow yet

By Mary Gilbert, CNN Meteorologist and Michelle Watson

(CNN) — A massive winter storm poised to unleash a barrage of heavy snow, treacherous ice, rain, and severe thunderstorms across a 1,300-mile swath of the United States will affect an estimated 62 million people starting Saturday afternoon and continuing into Monday.

Snow and ice so far this winter in the eastern two-thirds of the country have been limited to northern states. But this storm will break that mold and bring treacherous conditions to millions from the Plains to the East Coast, including in areas less prone to winter weather.

This powerful weather system is set to batter at least a dozen states with a potent mix of snow, ice, and blizzard conditions, accompanied by winds gusting up to 40 mph, creating treacherous travel conditions and potential power outages across a vast region.

“For some, this could be the heaviest snowfall in over a decade,” NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center warned.

And where it’s too warm for snow and ice, the storm could conjure up severe thunderstorms, including in some of the same areas still recovering from December’s deadly storms.

Major effects, including “considerable disruptions to daily life … dangerous or impossible driving conditions and widespread closures,” are expected from this storm through Sunday in parts of the Central US, according to the Winter Storm Severity Index.

The storm began Saturday afternoon fueled by a deep surge of moist air moving north out of the Gulf of Mexico.

From there it will track east and spread a wintry mess into the Mississippi Valley and parts of the Midwest by Sunday morning. The storm will expand into the Ohio Valley and Southeast on Sunday and to the East Coast on Sunday night and Monday.

The regions at greatest risk are clear, but exactly who gets snow, ice or mainly rain — and how much — is still incredibly difficult to determine. Small shifts in the storm’s track could change the outcomes entirely. Some areas could start as snow but change over to an icy mix as warmer air enters the area, while other spots start as rain or an icy mix and gradually change over to snow.

This storm will be capable of unleashing more than a foot of snow and enough ice to knock out power just as the coldest temperatures of the season arrive in its wake.

Snow will bury some areas

The storm will lay down several inches of snow starting late Saturday, spreading into the Ohio Valley on Sunday, then reaching the mid-Atlantic on Sunday night into Monday, making the Monday commute in places like Washington, DC and Philadelphia quite hazardous.

The highest snow totals will rack up in the coldest areas, likely in parts of Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio and West Virginia. Totals will be lower in areas where warmer air generates sleet and ice instead of snow.

The storm’s forecast has put several major cities on alert for potentially historic January snowfall totals.

St. Louis has only seen four days when more than a foot of snow fell in a day — a feat that could happen Sunday. Snow totals could range from an inch to more than a foot in parts of Missouri, depending on the storm’s track. This variable forecast extends to neighboring states as well, where some regions may see snowfall approaching record-breaking levels for January.

Kansas City and Indianapolis are among the metropolitan areas bracing for exceptional snow accumulations.

Kansas City could surpass its January record of 7.2 inches set in 2011, while Indianapolis is also in the storm’s crosshairs, with forecasts suggesting the possibility of surpassing its January record of 11.4 inches, set in 2014.

The Kansas City International Airport in Missouri closed its airfield for more than two hours Saturday afternoon, citing “rapid ice accumulation,” according to a post on X from the airport at 2:50 p.m. CT.

“Update: Crews have successfully treated airfield surfaces and the runways and taxiways at Kansas City International Airport (MCI) are open for flight operations,” Mayor Quinton Lucas said.

Some parts of the Kansas City metro area are starting to see a “freezing drizzle,” which has “begun to cover surfaces in a glaze of ice,” the Weather Service said on X Saturday afternoon.

Unlike during other storms this winter, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan and upstate New York could receive little-to-no snow because of the storm’s more southerly track. Some lake-effect snow is possible in Michigan and New York as the wind direction shifts both before and after the storm.

Treacherous ice to come

The greatest risk of dangerous ice will set up just south of the snowiest areas. Significant icing is possible from Kansas and Missouri through the central Appalachians and potentially parts of Maryland and Delaware.

Travel could be “nearly impossible” in the areas of heaviest icing, multiple National Weather Service offices warned.

Ahead of the storm, the governors of Kentucky and Virginia declared states of emergency, while Maryland’s governor declared a state of preparedness.

“This winter storm will likely cause significant disruption and dangerous conditions on our roads and could cause significant power outages – just 24 hours before it gets dangerously cold,” Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear said, according to a release from his office.

Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin advised those with post holiday travel plans to consider leaving on Saturday instead of Sunday, given the projected size of the storm.

“I’m encouraging all Virginians, visitors, and travelers to stay alert, monitor the weather forecast, and prepare now for any potential impacts,” Youngkin said Friday.

Maryland Gov. Wes Moore’s office said in a Saturday news release the state is preparing for the storm, which will “likely affect roads and transportation centers and could cause significant snow accumulation in some parts of the state.”

Ice amounts of 0.25 inches or more are possible, especially in parts of southern Missouri, southern Illinois, southern Indiana and almost all of Kentucky.

Any amount of ice is dangerous; just a thin layer – a light glaze to just over 0.10 inches – can turn paved surfaces into skating rinks, causing people to slip and vehicles to slide out of control.

The thicker the ice, the worse its effects on infrastructure. Heavy ice of 0.25 inches or more weighs down trees and power lines and can snap branches or pull down electrical wires. Large amounts of ice could also completely immobilize travel by making roads impassable.

An ice storm that slammed the Central US in January of last year knocked out power to thousands and sent first responders spinning out of control as they tried to reach people in distress.

Power outages could be widespread and long-lasting if significant icing occurs and power restoration crews can’t navigate treacherous roads. That situation could be dangerous or potentially deadly for those without access to heat in the extreme cold to come.

Damaging thunderstorms and soaking rain

The southern, warmer side of the storm will spread rain and some embedded thunderstorms over much of the South. Some of these thunderstorms could become severe, especially on Sunday afternoon.

A level 3 of 5 threat of severe thunderstorms is in place Sunday for parts of Louisiana, Arkansas and Mississippi, according to the Storm Prediction Center.

Damaging wind gusts and hail are the most likely threats from any severe thunderstorm but tornadoes are also possible. A tornado outbreak, including multiple rated EF3s, rocked parts of the South in late December.

Rain and storms could also cause flooding, especially where the heaviest rain falls in the Southeast.

The massive storm will finally exit the East Coast late Monday and fully diminish in strength overnight.

But Tuesday presents a new problem: Arctic cold. Temperatures will plunge as much as 30 degrees below normal for the eastern two-thirds of the US and the frigid air will last for some into at least the middle of January, locking in whatever snow and ice fall from the storm.

CNN meteorologist Elisa Raffa contributed to this report.

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