How this brutal winter storm is even possible with climate change – and maybe even more likely

By Andrew Freedman, CNN

(CNN) — The frigid temperatures, massive snow and deadly ice storm taking shape east of the Rockies might seem to conflict with life on a rapidly warming planet. But all of these things still happen, even with climate change, and some of them could be even more severe than before when the conditions are right.

Bone-chilling cold is becoming less common and severe as the world warms — cold comfort for millions of people about to experience a prolonged period of frigid temperatures. Winter is the fastest-warming season in the US, and even this winter so far, warm temperature records have been outnumbering cold records in the Lower 48 states.

This is largely because many states in the West are having their warmest winter on record, with ski areas in Colorado and other typical skiing meccas in that region starved for snow.

Relatively few cold temperature records have been set so far when compared to the warm records out West, said Bernadette Woods Placky, chief meteorologist at the research nonprofit Climate Central. But there is no denying that this weather is unusually cold, she said, describing it as more like the winters that the Midwest and Northeast were accustomed to experiencing a few decades ago.

Climate Central researchers looked at trends in the coldest temperature of the year in cities across the US, showing that they have been increasing rapidly with climate change. For example, in Minneapolis, the lowest temperature of the year has increased by around 12 degrees Fahrenheit since 1970.

And in Cleveland, the coldest temperature of the year has gone up by 11.2 degrees since 1970, the research shows. This means winters just haven’t been getting as cold as they used to, making this cold snap rarer, though it remains to be seen whether many all-time cold temperature records are tied or broken.

Other experts point to the winter storm and particularly the Arctic cold that will follow in its wake and note that climate change may itself be playing a role in instigating them. Jennifer Francis, a researcher at the Woodwell Climate Research Center who has studied changes in the polar vortex as the world warms, said she’s seeing evidence in this storm.

“Even though global warming is causing warmer winters overall, severe winter weather events are still possible — and perhaps even more likely — because warming is not the only consequence of human-caused climate change,” she said. “Other ingredients that set the stage for severe winter weather are on the rise, and many of them are in play this week.”

The cold air invading from the Arctic comes courtesy of the polar vortex, as its frigid lobes rotate around a main frigid whirl near Hudson Bay in Canada.

The polar vortex is a roaring, circular wall of wind that typically confines frigid air to the Arctic. But when it stretches out, it can dip south and bring the cold air with it. That is what is happening across the U.S. now with a big dip, or trough, in the jet stream across the Central and Eastern states.

Judah Cohen, a research scientist at MIT, said the stretching of the vortex is tied in part to sea ice loss in parts of the Arctic from human-caused climate change. He also said above average snowfall in parts of Siberia raises the likelihood of such stretching events, and this too is influenced by a paucity of sea ice in the Barents and Kara Seas in the Arctic Ocean.

“There’s clearly this strong relationship between stretched vortex events and extreme winter weather here in the US,” Cohen said. He said that during the period of rapid Arctic climate change, the polar vortex has become more stretched and variable, raising the risk of bouts of severe winter weather in the mid-latitudes, including the US, Europe and parts of Asia.

“On the southern flanks of the polar vortex, over the US and Asia, and under that where that stretching is happening, there’s been an increase in severe winter weather,” Cohen said. “I’m not saying any one weather event is attributed to climate change,” he said, “But I do think it loaded the dice here.”

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