Wet weekend could bring flooding threat
For multiple days now, the ABC 17 Stormtrack Weather Team has been keeping you up to date on the latest when it comes to Gordon and how it will affect us.
After making landfall as a tropical storm just to the west of the Alabama/Mississippi border, Gordon weakened significantly to a tropical depression.
As of 8 AM Thursday morning, Gordon continues to track through the Mississippi Delta, bringing with it heavy rain, breezy winds, and the potential for flash flooding.
It’s interesting to note that as Gordon continues to lose steam, most of the rainfall has been to the east and north of the circulation. Looking at water vapor imagery you can see why, as drier air continues to work into the western side of the circulation limiting how much rain has fallen.
The current consensus continues to track the remnants of Gordon into Arkansas before curving off to the northeast into the weekend, as it’s picked up by a trough, which is when we can expect to see the greatest amount of rain in Mid-Missouri.
Ahead of the potential heavy rain, all of Mid-Missouri is under a flash flood watch beginning early Friday and lasting through Sunday, as some areas could see up to 5 inches of rain. Initially it looked like a large portion of the region would see the potential for flash flooding, but models have slowly been backing off on that.
There is considerable agreement that the greatest extent of rainfall will be along and west of Hwy 63, this shifts the greatest concern for flash flooding near St. Louis and the Mississippi River. This shift is occurring, as a stationary front is expected to set up shop in southern Missouri. If the front were closer to Mid-Missouri we would have seen a higher threat for flash flooding.
Nonetheless, heavy rain is still expected as we head into the weekend with anywhere form 2 to 5 inches of rain, with localized heavier amounts. Although we are in a drought any heavy bursts of rain could lead to some flooding concerns. While that could occur at anytime during the weekend, we’ll want to especially watch Friday night into Saturday morning. Tropical systems are warm core in nature, and heaviest rain occurs during the nighttime as the cloud tops cool, which is what we’ll be watching for as we head into the evening hours. Here’s a look at GFS forecast totals for rain through Sunday, showing the eastward shift in rain.
For now flooding is still looking like a concern for Mid-Missouri, but the greatest threat is shifting more to the south and east.
Stay with ABC 17 Stormtrack as we continue to monitor a wet weekend and follow us on Twitter @ABC17Stormtrack.
