Strong storms possible each day through Saturday

For the past several days, Mid-Missouri has seen hot and humid conditions all thanks to a ridge that built into the region. That ridge is slowly breaking down, which will lead to a series of disturbances that will bring daily strong storms in the forecast through Saturday. Not only will we be dealing with strong storms thanks to those disturbances, but a strengthening low level jet will aide in storm development each morning.

After nearly two weeks of no rain, the dry period will come to an end. This unfortunately comes at a time when the atmosphere is very unstable and strong storms are possible. Parts of Mid-Missouri is under a severe risk of storms each day through the weekend, with a slight risk in effect through Wednesday night.

Setup:

Today – Thursday

Storms this afternoon are firing as the atmospheric cap (a layer of warm air above the surface) continues to erode away. This will set the stage for continuous scattered showers and storms to develop through the day. Due to the very unstable atmosphere and moisture rich environment (dew points in the mid 70s), a few storms will likely go severe. No organized storms are expected, as we have a lack of wind shear (increasing winds with height) to help organize supercellular structures. All of Mid-Missouri through the evening is not only under a slight risk, but a severe thunderstorm watch through 8 PM. Any storms we see develop during the afternoon hours will quickly lose steam once the sunsets. As we head through the night, the lower level jet is expected to strengthen across parts of Kansas. This will aide in the develop of an organized line of storms. Where the storms initiate all depends on the placement of the lower level jet, and it’s looking likely it’ll be more towards eastern Kansas. If this scenario plays out, another line of strong storms with gusty winds and large hail is likely through the overnight. The line of storms will gradually track southeast through the night and weaken upon daybreak, with a dry Thursday expected to remain in the forecast.

Thursday night – Saturday

Despite the storms that forms today, the atmosphere will still be primed and ready for more action as we head into the close of the week. Once again, the lower level jet will aide in the development of an MCS (an organized cluster of storms) Thursday night. Where we see initialization of the storms is a bit uncertain, but there is confidence that with the ample amount of instability and a developing low level jet, that storms will form. The track will carry the storms into parts of western Missouri, where a few strong storms are possible through daybreak, before weakening. Most of the storms we are expected to see through the weekend, will form in parts of Nebraska and Kansas and gradually track into Mid-Missouri under a weakening ridge. With an unstable airmass remaining in place, any storms are likely to form large hail and damaging winds. To cap off the stormy weekend, a stalled out frontal boundary that has set up shop on the periphery of our ridge will finally track through Mid-Missouri this weekend. Ahead of this line will be strong storms, with lower humidity and cooler conditions on the backside of the front.

Threats:

Each day poses a threat of seeing strong storms as plenty of energy is available in the atmosphere and moisture has been steadily on the rise. These in association with disturbances that will provide lift, will aide in the development of storms.

Our main threats include:

– Hail up to quarter size is possible, with isolated ping pong ball reports. The majority of storms will likely see hail at least near one inch diameter.

– Damaging winds are likely on any down draft of a storm, with winds up to 70 mph likely.

– The tornado threat is negligible, but if one were to form, it would occur in extreme northern parts of Mid-Missouri. The reason we are seeing a negligible threat is due to the lack of spin in the atmosphere. The upper level flow has become more zonal, which eliminates our tornado threat.

– The flooding threat is low, as only 1.5 – 2.5″ of rain is possible by the end of the week. With the recent dry spell that we’ve been under, any rain will be beneficial and soak right into the ground. However, areas that are prone to flooding will likely see some pooling of water.

Looking ahead:

After an early taste of hot weather, there is some good news in the forecast. Once the front tracks through Mid-Missouri this weekend, we’ll see cooler and drier weather as we head into a new week. Current trends have dew points dropping into the mid 50s, with afternoon highs remaining seasonal in the mid to upper 80s. If you’re a fan of beautiful mornings, you are in luck as the lower 60s return next week.