Rain chances return overnight, strong storms possible Monday

After a relatively quiet week in Mid-Missouri last week, the weather pattern is changing for the start of this work week.

Upper level northwest flow due to a ridge of high pressure building over the western United States will be responsible for several waves of low pressure that will bring storm chances to Mid-Missouri each day through Friday.

The first chance for showers and storms comes Sunday night as a cold front approaches from the north. Thunderstorms will move into northern Mid-Missouri between 10:00 p.m. and midnight, and gradually weaken overnight. Some of these storms could contain small hail and some damaging wind gusts.

On Monday, this cold front will continue to sweep south, shifting winds to the north by the afternoon. There will be enough instability due to daytime heating that this front could help trigger storms once again by late afternoon into the early evening for areas along and south of I-70. Some of those storms could be severe, bringing the risk for large hail and damaging winds. All of Mid-Missouri is under a marginal (low) risk for severe storms Monday afternoon.

Rain chances increase again by late Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday, as a robust upper level wave moves in from the southwest. There is a marginal risk for severe weather for areas west of Highway 63 Tuesday.

Between Monday and Friday, much of Mid-Missouri could pick up between 1.5″ to 2.5″ of rain.

For additional updates, follow @ABC17Stormtrack on Twitter.