INSIDER BLOG: Strong storms possible through this evening

Monday Afternoon Update: Scattered storms have developed across Mid-Missouri with the severe storms staying to our west around the Kansas City area as of 5:00. A few strong storms will be possible between now and 9-10:00 PM.

Setup

The same upper-level low that brought us the rain yesterday is slowly crawling east. It’s taking long enough that the door is going to open up to see storms again. As it moves through, it will swing an occluded front through the region, providing a focus for thunderstorm development. This is an atypical setup for this area, leading to a bit of a tricky forecast.

Timing

Thunderstorms have developed and the threat for stronger storms will be open until about 9-10 PM. A few lingering rumbles will be possible overnight, but anything strong isn’t expected to last too much longer than sunset.

Threats

Colder air aloft with this strong system will make it easier to form hail later today. That looks like the biggest threat, with hail up to the size of quarters possible. With these low-topped supercells we could be tracking, a brief spin-up tornado is possible with as much spin in the atmosphere as we have.

TIMING: