Tracking a chance for storms tonight

TODAY: Tuesday is a mostly dry day, with a cool and somewhat dry feeling morning. At the core of the cooler air mass that began to trickle in on Monday, Tuesday starts with temperatures and dew points mostly in the low 60s. Some may even have dew points in the 50s at some point in the north over the course of the early morning, but that seems unlikely as winds are actively becoming southerly. Today will feel increasingly humid and warm, with south winds returning higher temperatures and dew points. Temperatures will likely range from mid-80s to mid-90s from north to south, respectively. It may feel quite hot, like near 100 degrees in Warsaw and Osage Beach.

TONIGHT: Showers and storms may enter from the northwest late this afternoon and evening. These are likely weakening as they work into the region while low-level winds are weakening. The makeshift surface boundary that is created by their outflow will serve as a focus for renewed storms as the low-level winds fire up again after the dinner hour. This will give us a chance for a few strong storms by sunset. The greatest confidence is near Highway 65 south of I-70, near Sedalia and Warsaw. Our main threat will be damaging winds, with a lesser hail threat. Most storms tonight will weaken as they spread east into the night with lessening storm energy.

EXTENDED: The greatest rain chance will be overnight, but remnant showers and weak storms will keep clouds around on Wednesday. Highs are likely cooler for most, in the low 80s on Wednesday and again on Thursday. On Thursday, we'll be north of the front that will take rain chances south and usher in milder air. Dry weather is forecast amid daily highs in the mid-80s on Friday and Saturday. Slight rain chances are forecast for Sunday, but confidence is low.