Insider Blog: Tracking a chance for strong storms Wednesday evening and flooding overnight

UPDATE:

As of Wednesday morning, the severe risk remains low and isolated for Wednesday evening.

The threat of flash flooding is growing for Wednesday night into Thursday morning. A flood watch is in effect through 10 AM Thursday. Heavy rain overnight and the potential for training thunderstorms have raised the possibility of a swath of rain totals of 2-4 inches somewhere in the region. It's uncertain where this rain will fall, but isolated flash flooding is possible wherever it targets.

SETUP:

The ABC17 Stormtrack Weather Team is tracking a chance for strong storms Wednesday evening. An area of low pressure will move into the region late in the day, bringing scattered rain and thunderstorm chances through the evening and into the night. In a window from about 2-10 p.m., strong storms will be possible if we get the right ingredients.

The main uncertainty we have in severe weather occurring Wednesday revolves around how much instability we have by the afternoon. Early day rain and clouds may limit surface instability and by connection, our severe threat.

Model guidance still disagrees on how much "storm energy" we'll have by Wednesday afternoon.

TIMING

Rainfall will likely be ongoing in the morning, on the heels of an upper-level wave that triggers rain late Tuesday night. Scattered showers and storms may begin to develop as early as midday as another wave moves in. Storms may be scattered by the dinner hour. The best timing for strong to severe storms will be in the heat of the day, from early afternoon to late evening.

IMPACTS

Our main concern is for damaging winds, but brief and weak tornadoes are possible, especially if surface instability trends higher. Overall, the threat should be isolated on both accounts, and widespread severe weather is not likely.

An inch of rain or locally more may fall between Wednesday and Thursday combined, as more non-severe storms are expected overnight into Thursday.