Iran promises ‘utter ruin’ if war restarts. Here’s what could happen if diplomacy fails

By CNN Staff, CNN

(CNN) — As negotiations between the United States and Iran edge toward a possible agreement, Tehran is increasingly signaling that any return to war would look very different from the last.

US officials said Thursday that a tentative agreement had been reached in talks between Tehran and Washington and was awaiting President Donald Trump’s approval. Yet even as negotiators reported progress, the military confrontation showed little sign of disappearing. The US launched its second round of strikes on Iran in a matter of days this week, while skirmishes continued Thursday evening in the Strait of Hormuz.

Iranian officials have used the negotiations to project confidence that they retain significant military options should diplomacy fail. The Revolutionary Guards said any renewed conflict would spread “far beyond the region,” threatening “crushing blows” and “utter ruin” in places opponents “cannot even imagine.”

The warnings come after a war that saw Iran target US bases, Israeli cities and critical infrastructure in Gulf Arab states, while effectively shutting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and triggering a global energy shock.

Last week, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned that any future retaliation would “feature many more surprises,” while Iran’s military threatened to open “new fronts” using “new tools.” Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran’s top negotiator, said the armed forces had used the ceasefire period to rebuild their capabilities “at the highest level.”

Experts say much of the rhetoric is intended to deter further attacks. But they also warn that Tehran retains significant escalation options should diplomacy collapse.

Should war resume, here are some ways Iran could respond:

A new blockade

Iran cannot prevail against the US and Israel via conventional military means, so it has pursued deterrence by inflicting global economic pain through a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime chokepoint. Emboldened by its success, Tehran may now seek to disrupt another vital maritime corridor.

By activating its regional proxy, the Houthis in Yemen, Iran could orchestrate the closure of the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, blocking another vital artery connecting major trade routes between Europe, Asia and the Arab world. Such a move would compound the worldwide economic pressure.

In 2023, more than 10% of the world’s seaborne oil trade passed through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. After the Houthis created maritime insecurity in the region near Yemen in 2024, that share nearly halved for oil and fell to near zero for liquefied natural gas, according to the US Energy Information Administration.

“A simultaneous crisis in Bab al-Mandeb and the Strait of Hormuz would be far more serious, potentially affecting both Red Sea trade and Persian Gulf energy flows, which would raise oil prices, freight rates, and inflationary pressure worldwide,” Umud Shokri, an energy strategist and senior visiting fellow at George Mason University told CNN.

In recent years, the Houthis have demonstrated their ability to disrupt maritime navigation near Bab al-Mandeb by attacking, seizing and sinking vessels passing through its waters. But creating a blockade similar to the one in the Strait of Hormuz would be “much harder,” Shokri said.

“Bab al-Mandeb is not directly controlled by Iran, and any sustained closure would likely trigger a strong international naval response,” Shokri said. “The more realistic scenario is not a complete physical closure, but a prolonged security crisis that makes commercial shipping too risky or expensive,”

Oil wells

If Trump acts on his threat to target Iran’s oil refineries, infrastructure and electrical plants, Tehran could seek to widen the war across the Arab world, striking sensitive sites to sow global economic panic and inflict further damage on neighboring countries’ reputations as secure hubs for international business and reliable guarantors of global energy flows.

A member of Iran’s national security committee, Ahmad Bakhshayesh Ardestani, said that if the US were to target Iran’s oil facilities, Tehran would retaliate by striking Gulf Arab states’ oil wells – a significant escalation from the 40-day war, when Iran mainly targeting refineries or pipelines.

“If they intend to do something so that we have no oil, we will not attack their pipelines, we will attack the wells so that they also have no oil and fuel becomes expensive for the world, ” he said, according to Iranian media.

Critical infrastructure

Even after the truce took effect on April 8, Iranian proxies in Iraq were blamed by the UAE for an attack on Abu Dhabi’s nuclear power plant, while Saudi Arabia was also targeted by drones coming from Iraq.

During the war, Iran had fired missiles at civilian targets including hotels and airports but launched very few projectiles on critical desalination plants that supply fresh water to millions in the region.

And despite issuing evacuation warnings against US educational facilities in the region, there were no reports of Iran targeting schools and universities.

For all the rhetoric, Grajewski played down Iran’s threat of “surprises,” noting that Iranian weapons are well-known.

“They certainly have ranges beyond 2,000 kilometers (about 1,200 miles), but it wouldn’t be any new weapon.”

European targets

Earlier this month, IRGC-linked telegram pages posted satellite images purporting to show US aircraft parked in Chania Airport on the Greek island of Crete.

CNN was not able to verify the authenticity of the images, but the Revolutionary Guards’ threat to expand its targets “beyond the region” if Iran is attacked again raises the prospect of retaliation much further afield.

During 40 days of war with the US and Israel, Iran showcased its ability to send ballistic missiles to areas previously thought untouchable.

In March, Iran is believed to have launched two intermediate-range ballistic missiles at Diego Garcia, a joint US-UK military base in the Indian Ocean, 2,000 miles from Iran, in what appeared to be its first attempt to target the base.

Farzin Nadimi, a senior fellow at The Washington Institute, said if an emboldened Tehran decides to try its long-range missiles against Europe in a surprise attack, targets may include RAF Fairford and RAF Lakenheath, key US-operated air bases in the United Kingdom or the Ramstein logistical and telecommunication hub in Germany.

“However, Iran would likely reserve that possibility to a very top level of escalation,” he said. During the war, Iran is also believed to have attempted to target British military facilities as far away as Cyprus.

“I don’t think the Mediterranean is completely beyond the scope of their capabilities,” Nicole Grajewski an assistant professor at the Center for International Studies at Sciences Po in Paris, told CNN. “The issue here would be accuracy.”

Drones, supersonic cruise missiles and satellite jamming

To increase its chances of hitting targets, Nadimi said Iran may launch more sophisticated and coordinated swarms of AI-enabled drones fitted with cameras that can communicate with each other, adjust flight paths and speed to evade jamming and air defenses.

“They haven’t demonstrated these capabilities yet, but they discussed developing this technology in the past,” Nadimi said.

Tehran may also seek to upgrade its cruise missile capabilities by modifying existing systems to reach supersonic speeds and evade interception, while also attempting to jam military communication and surveillance satellites, he added.

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