Emerging “Super” El Niño to suppress Atlantic hurricanes this year
Hurricane season is quickly approaching, but you might have noticed a lack of fanfare around this season's forecast, as the emergence of a strong (or "super") El Niño later this year is expected to suppress cyclone activity.
The National Hurricane Center will issue its official Atlantic hurricane season forecast next week, ahead of the season's start on June 1st, and several other organizations have already released early looks for the season.
Colorado State University, which has been making hurricane forecasts since 1984, is calling for a near- to below-average hurricane season, with 13 named storms in total, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. That would mark a departure from a recent streak of above-average seasons fueled by hot ocean temperatures.
Sea-surface temperatures in the Gulf and Atlantic are also above normal this year, though not as high as in recent seasons, and scientists are more concerned about the abnormally warm water on the other side of the country, in the Pacific.
The emergence of warmer-than-normal water off the coasts of Central and South America is already raising alarm bells for what could be a historically strong El Niño developing later this year.
El Niño is the warm phase of oscillating ocean temperatures in the Pacific, compared to the cooler La Niña. When sea surface temperatures warm in the Eastern Pacific, it leads to cascading pressure and wind changes around the globe that influence the formation of hurricanes throughout the season.
Atlantic hurricane activity is typically subdued under an El Niño due to strong winds over the Gulf and Atlantic, which are bad for storm development. Strong winds produce more wind shear, which tends to rip apart hurricanes or knock them out of balance.
On the other hand, the Eastern Pacific could see more cyclones due to the energy building up in the warming waters near the equator. These storms can pose risks to the Central and South American coasts and can sometimes track along the west coast of the United States or across Hawaii.
The Eastern Pacific season also gets going a little earlier, starting two weeks earlier than the Atlantic season on May 15th. NOAA will begin releasing tropical outlooks this Friday every 6 hours, though it does take time for hurricane season to ramp up.
The Atlantic hurricane season starts in June but doesn't peak until late September and early October, and storms historically continue forming through the end of the season on November 31st. While there were no landfalling hurricanes in the United States last year, it was still an average year for hurricanes, with 13 named storms, and Hurricane Melissa tied as the strongest Atlantic hurricane on record by wind speed.
