Four ways a hasty Trump exit from the Iran war may not end the conflict

By Abbas Al Lawati, CNN

(CNN) — US President Donald Trump is signaling that he may walk away from the Iran war, unilaterally stepping out without toppling the Islamic Republic, opening the Strait of Hormuz or securing a deal with Tehran to halt attacks on the United States and its allies.

The president has boasted the “hard part is done” and is optimistic that such a move would ease the economic pain that Iran’s attacks on Persian Gulf shipping and energy infrastructure have caused for consumers in the US and around the world.

But Iran has insisted that it will choose when the war ends and is showing no signs of giving up until the US agrees to its demands. Tehran rejects “deadlines” and is prepared to fight on for “at least six months,” Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tuesday.

Here’s why the hard part of the war may be far from over:

A emboldened Iranian regime in possession of nuclear material

Trump declared on Tuesday that his “one goal” of preventing Iran from developing a nuclear weapon “has been attained.” The US has bombed several Iranian nuclear facilities, but more than 400 kilograms of highly enriched uranium that could be used to make a bomb are unaccounted for.

Despite Trump’s assertion that the “very different people” who now rule Iran are “much more reasonable,” experts have reason to believe that Iran is now more likely to seek a bomb than it had been before the war. The previous supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, who had issued a fatwa banning its development, was killed by the US and Israel. Now hardliners in the country are demanding weaponization of the nuclear program, arguing that Iran’s status as a nuclear threshold state wasn’t an effective deterrent to prevent attacks.

Having failed to topple the Islamic Republic, the US would be leaving in place a significantly more hardline regime where civilian leaders are being undermined by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The Guards are likely to make Iran even more reclusive and significantly heighten the crackdown on liberties and dissent.

Global economic chaos continues as Hormuz is weaponized

An early exit from the Iran war would effectively amount to an acknowledgement of Washington’s failure to open the Strait of Hormuz through diplomatic or military pressure. Trump has said gas prices will come “tumbling down” after a US exit, arguing that because the US imports relatively little energy from the Middle East, securing the waterway should fall on those who do.

But markets don’t work that way. The price Americans pay at the pump is set on the global market, regardless of where the fuel is sourced, and a supply shock – if left unaddressed – would still push prices higher in the US.

Exiting without an agreement to reopen the strait would effectively hand Iran a win in imposing its sovereignty over the waterway, giving it immense leverage over the world economy and far more power than it previously exercised. Iran’s vetting of ships that pass through the strait and its reported imposition of tolls of up to $2 million per ship, risks becoming the new norm – creating a fresh revenue stream as Tehran wages a war it has shown little intention of ending.

The consolidation of Iran’s control could, paradoxically, allow more oil to flow if more states opt to seek permission from Tehran to transit the strait, offering some relief to rising prices. But it would set a precedent with little basis in international law and raise serious questions about the effectiveness of the rules-based maritime order. And experts say that even if oil supply returns, it could take weeks – even months – for lower prices to filter through at the pump.

Gulf security left unaddressed

Iran has broken two taboos with its Gulf Arab neighbors during the war: it launched direct attacks against their territory for the first time, punishing them for the actions of their American ally, and it effectively closed Hormuz to their oil shipments, depriving them of an economic lifeline.

Both are seen by Gulf states as existential, and a quick exit from the war without an agreement could leave them exposed to repeat attacks for years to come. It would also hand Iran significant leverage over them, allowing it to dictate the terms under which they can export oil, while maintaining the threat of further missile strikes on their cities if they refuse to comply with an increasingly belligerent Islamic Republic.

It is also likely to raise questions about the implicit bargain that ties Gulf investment and strategic alignment to continued US protection. When Trump visited Qatar as part of his first scheduled trip in his second term, he declared that “we’re going to protect you,” as Gulf states pledged trillions of dollars in US investments. A hasty exit that leaves Gulf states to fend for themselves would likely be seen as a betrayal of that pledge.

Israel may continue to strike Iran and Lebanon

Where a hasty US exit from the war leaves Israel could shape the trajectory of the war. In both Lebanon and Gaza, Israel continued to strike adversaries after agreeing to ceasefires, citing violations from the other side. It signaled early in the latest Iran conflict that it was seeking to fundamentally weaken – if not topple – the Iranian regime, and an American exit with the Islamic Republic intact could leave it with what it sees as unfinished business.

But Washington has previously shown it can restrain Israel when it chooses to. During the last Israel-Iran war in June 2025, when Trump moved to end the conflict, he said he forced Israel to call back jets that were already enroute to strike Iran.

And even if Israel halts its strikes on Iran, there’s no guarantee Tehran will reciprocate. Having been targeted by Israel twice in the span of a year, Iran is likely to seek assurances that it will not be attacked again, something that is unlikely to materialize without a formal, negotiated end to the war.

Iran has also repeatedly insisted on a comprehensive agreement that would bring an end to fighting in Lebanon. A US exit is unlikely to resolve that front. Israel has intensified its campaign there following Hezbollah strikes in support of Iran, and plans to flatten and hold swathes of the south of the country until it judges the Hezbollah threat is eliminated.

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