Climate Matters: Late March heat wave “virtually impossible” without climate change, experts say

Temperatures are nearing record highs again for the end of March as a large part of the country lies under a heat dome, and scientists say this extreme heat would be impossible without human-caused climate change.

The heat dome will go down not only as the worst heat wave to hit the United States in March but also as one of the largest ever recorded in the country's history.

About a quarter to a third of the U.S. could break March heat records this week. According to The National Center for Environmental Information, nearly 500 weather stations are expected to record their highest March temperatures ever between Wednesday and Saturday. Around 1,500 stations will set new daily temperature records this week.

The size of the heat dome has exceeded other historic heat waves such as the 2021 Pacific Northwest event and the 2012 Upper Midwest and Northeast heat waves. Fourteen states have already recorded their hottest March day with this recent heat dome, including Missouri.

Other heat domes were dangerous mostly because they happened during summer when temperatures are higher. This early spring heat may not be as severe, but it can still be deadly. Research shows that early heat waves can cause more deaths because people are not acclimated to higher temperatures.

World Weather Attribution, which studies extreme weather and climate change, states this heat wave would be "virtually impossible without climate change." Their findings indicate that the historical burning of fossil fuels and the rise in greenhouse gases have made this heat wave up to 800 times more likely. It’s easier to see how climate change affects temperatures because measurements have been ongoing worldwide for centuries.

While the heat dome has mainly affected the Desert Southwest in the past week, it is expected to move east in the coming days, bringing abnormal heat to the central U.S. through the end of the week, including Mid-Missouri. Columbia's record high will likely be broken on Thursday, with a forecast high of 89, surpassing the 1910 record of 86 degrees.