Analysis suggests US was responsible for deadly strike on Iranian elementary school

CNN

By Christian Edwards, Thomas Bordeaux, Gianluca Mezzofiore, Quinta Thomson, Isobel Yeung, CNN

(CNN) — The United States military was likely responsible for the strike on an elementary school in southern Iran that killed scores of children, the deadliest incident of civilian casualties in the US and Israel’s almost week-long war with Iran, according to CNN and expert analysis of evidence.

Satellite imagery, geolocated videos, public statements from US officials and the assessment of munitions experts suggest that the Shajare Tayyiba elementary school in Minab was hit on February 28 at around the same time as an attack that American forces likely carried out on a neighboring Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) naval base.

The White House has not ruled out that US military personnel carried out the strike that, according to Iranian state media, killed at least 168 children and 14 teachers. An Israel Defense Forces (IDF) spokesman said at a briefing Friday that he was “not aware of any IDF activity in the area.” Both countries stressed that they do not target civilians.

When assessing which military is responsible for a particular strike – in any conflict – CNN typically obtains images of the remnants of the weapons used in the attack and provides these to munitions experts so that their provenance can be assessed.

With Iran’s internet blackout, images and footage from the ground are limited. CNN has not been able to examine such evidence in this case, so any assessment cannot be conclusive.

However, other evidence points toward US responsibility for the strike, which occurred Saturday morning – the first day of the working and school week in Iran. Videos geolocated by CNN show that the school was struck at or around the same time as the naval base, with one showing smoke billowing both from the IRGC facility and the school building.

Satellite imagery from 2013 showed that the school and the IRGC base were once part of the same compound. But images from 2016 revealed that a fence had been erected to separate the school from the rest of the base, and that a separate entrance to the school had been built. In December 2025, imagery showed dozens of people in the school’s courtyard, apparently playing in what appears to be a court for ballgames.

N.R. Jenzen-Jones, a munitions expert and the director of Armament Research Services (ARES), told CNN that the satellite imagery and videos “paint a picture of multiple simultaneous or near-simultaneous strikes” hitting both the IRGC compound and the school.

Initially, speculation swirled online that the blast at the school could have been caused by misfiring Iranian air defenses, as the IRGC tried to repel incoming air strikes.

But Jenzen-Jones said that explanation was unlikely, since recent imagery of the naval base showed the buildings had sustained significant damage, suggesting they had been struck with air-delivered precision-guided munitions, rather than “air defense missiles that have gone awry.”

“We’re seeing targeted strikes that look like they’re intended to disable those buildings. That’s the most likely outcome,” he added.

Jenzen-Jones also said that military bases such as the one at Minab would often be among the “pre-planned targets” to be struck in the opening exchanges of a conflict.

US officials have confirmed that the US has struck military targets in southern Iran. In a briefing Wednesday, Gen. Dan Caine, chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, presented a map that plotted American and Israeli strikes on Iran over the first 100 hours of the war. He said Israel had mostly struck northern Iran while the US had targeted the south.

Caine said that along Iran’s “southern axis,” the US has “continued to provide pressure from the sea, along the southeastern side of the coast, and has been attriting naval capability all along the Strait and up into the Arabian Gulf at a size and scale sufficiently to address the targets required.”

The most likely explanation for the school strike, Jenzen-Jones said, is that the US inadvertently struck the facility while it was carrying out the attack on the naval base, not realizing that the school was no longer part of the IRGC compound, or having failed to update its targeting officers.

“It’s probably a targeting failure,” he said. “Somewhere in the target cycle, an intelligence failure meant that the target set wasn’t updated, or a decision was made later in the cycle that resulted in the wrong target being hit.”

US officials have neither confirmed nor denied responsibility.

Asked for comment on the incident, the US Defense Department referred CNN to Central Command. CENTCOM told CNN that “it would be inappropriate to comment given the incident is under investigation.”

CENTCOM had previously said that it was “aware of reports concerning civilian harm resulting from ongoing military operations” and was “looking into them.” Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said Wednesday that an investigation had been launched.

Although the probe is ongoing and a conclusion has not yet been reached, Reuters reported Friday that US military investigators believe it is likely that US forces were responsible for the strike on the school.

Volker Türk, the United Nations human rights chief, said Friday that the UN has “significant concerns” about whether the strikes complied with international humanitarian law.

Ravina Shamdasani, a UN spokeswoman, told CNN the strike “must not become just another horrific incident that leaves the headlines and is no longer a priority. There needs to be accountability.”

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