WEATHER ALERT DAY: Snow accumulations could create slick conditions for some Sunday night into Monday morning

The ABC 17 Stormtrack Weather Team is tracking the potential of winter impacts due to varying precipitation types on Sunday into Sunday night.

Low pressure moving out of the Plains will interact with this cold air as moisture streams in from the southwest along the frontal boundary, with precipitation developing and moving into Mid-Missouri by late afternoon.

Temperatures will likely be above freezing areawide at the onset of precipitation, but cold enough to get a melty snow to the ground in the north. As the system moves in, warmer air aloft will likely melt some snow as it falls. Temperatures below that warm layer will be very important to precipitation type.

Confidence is increasing that mid level and surface temperatures will support a transition from rain to sleet and snow, rather than from rain to freezing rain. This is in part due to some above-freezing air aloft, and also some at the surface. The surface temperature forecast is not 100% certain at this point, but the picture that's painted in model guidance is one of marginally freezing to just above freezing, where the warm layer aloft is forecast to be. Where we get a melting layer over a very cold and shallow surface layer, we get freezing rain. That window looks very small if present at all, which should limit our potential for freezing rain, and leave potential for rain to transition to sleet and or snow instead.

While we have a rough idea of what precipitation type is most likely where, more specific details are unclear, and we are still uncertain which areas will feel the most impact from this system. Marginal temperatures at the surface may limit impacts for many, but more intense precipitation could overcome a slightly warmer environment, leaving more isolated areas of greater impact. Additionally, some dry air could help cool the air through evaporation and promote a faster switch to snow. Some higher-end totals of snowfall are possible but statistically unlikely at this point. High-end amounts of 4-6 inches of snow near Columbia and northward. The probability of more than 4 inches of snow is less than 10% in Columbia and only near 15% in Macon. While the overall forecast is trending in a very manageable direction, we want you to stay tuned to the forecast as there are still some factors to watch carefully. Travel could be slick by Monday morning.

Precipitation looks to exit to the east/southeast by early Monday morning, but with temperatures during the event likely to be coldest on Monday morning, this is when roads are likely to be the worst.

Make sure to give yourself extra time Sunday night and Monday morning, and download the ABC 17 Stormtrack weather and news apps to keep an eye on any closings and delays that may pop up on Monday morning.