You paid for tariffs — but you won’t get a slice of tariff refunds

By Elisabeth Buchwald, CNN

(CNN) — The government is on the hook to refund $134 billion – and counting – worth of tariff revenue collected from President Donald Trump’s most sweeping tariffs, which were rendered illegal by the Supreme Court last week.

How much of that will consumers, who paid for steep tariffs via higher prices, get back?

Almost certainly nothing.

That’s because consumers paid for tariffs indirectly: They’re mostly not the ones making the actual payment to the government. When – and perhaps if – any funds are returned, they’ll go to what’s known as the importer of record, i.e., the party that paid the initial tariff bill. Think: Costco, Walmart, Target, etc.

For now, refunds are largely theoretical. The Trump administration and the Supreme Court have given little clarity about how they would be processed. The only thing you can be sure of is that it will be a lengthy process, with Trump telling reporters on Friday that it could take up to five years to accomplish.

What you paid

Businesses ate the bulk of the tariff cost themselves. But they passed some of that expense on to you. Consumers covered around a one-quarter of their tariff bills through higher prices charged, according to research published by the Harvard Business School’s Pricing Lab.

In total, the Tax Foundation estimates tariffs increased the average American household’s tax payments by $1,000 last year.

Facing pressure from voters to improve affordability, the Trump administration has for months been floating $2,000 tariff rebate checks to help defray the cost of tariffs borne by consumers.

Those rebate checks, which would require approval from Congress, would not be refunds on tariff payments – they’re effectively stimulus checks to help boost the economy that’s been harmed by the higher border taxes. It’s not clear if the Supreme Court’s decision jeopardized those potential rebate checks.

What is clear: The vast majority of consumers haven’t paid tariff costs directly, so the Trump administration doesn’t owe them tariff refunds.

Democrats ramp up pressure

Democrats are ramping up the pressure on the White House over tariff refunds.

In a letter to President Donald Trump, Sens. Elizabeth Warren, Peter Welch and Cory Booker say tariff refunds should go to consumers and small businesses have been “illegally cheated out of their hard-earned money.”

The Democrats say Trump’s “inability or unwillingness” to provide tariff refunds represents a “giveaway to giant corporations that amounts to theft from the middle class.”

The White House did not respond to a request for comment on the letter, which was shared first with CNN.

Businesses probably won’t pay you back, either

Costco is one of the thousands of businesses that sued the US government ahead of the Supreme Court verdict, in an effort to secure a refund. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent mused in an interview last month that Costco’s customers likely wouldn’t see a cent of any potential refunds the company gets. Regardless, more companies are likely to follow Costco’s example, with FedEx on Monday filing a case against the Trump administration, marking the first major corporation to do so after the Supreme Court ruling.

Nothing prevents businesses from doling out a portion of refunds they secure to customers. But given they probably would have paid handsome legal fees to get them and that they shouldered the majority of the tariff costs, it’s more or less a pipe dream.

Consumers may see relief in other forms, though.

While David Suk, CEO of The Baby’s Brew, a portable baby bottle warmer, is skeptical he’ll see any amount of the $80,000 in tariff payments his company made since Trump’s sweeping tariffs took effect last year, in the event he does, he plans to lower prices.

If he gets any money back, it wouldn’t represent the overall cost of tariffs, since that also includes substantial front-loading he did to get ahead of tariffs and premiums to expedite production.

“It couldn’t possibly be a one-to-one ratio in terms of giving back (tariff refunds). As much as I would love to be able to do that, it’s just not feasible,” Suk told CNN. All of the company’s products are manufactured in China, and as tariff rates were lowered on Chinese goods at various points last year, he started slashing prices.

“You’re sort of trying to make these business decisions to make sure that you can stay in business, which is the real risk, and make your customers happy.”

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