On the verge of strikes in Iran, the US held off. What happens next is up to Trump

By Kevin Liptak, Zachary Cohen, Alayna Treene, Kristen Holmes, CNN

(CNN) — Emerging on Tuesday from a late-night Situation Room meeting to discuss options for striking Iran, some of President Donald Trump’s top national security officials were relatively sure a decision on military action was close at hand.

The president, they felt, was moved by seeing videos from Iran showing past executions, grisly scenes that seemed likely to repeat themselves amid the regime’s brutal crackdown on protesters, a person familiar with the meeting said.

Trump was briefed on Iran’s planned execution of one high-profile protestor, 26-year-old Erfan Soltani, which the State Department said on Tuesday was initially planned for January 14. The president was deeply troubled about the prospect, a source familiar with the meeting told CNN.

No decision was conveyed during the meeting, and Trump indicated he would continue to weigh options.

But by Wednesday morning, after encouraging Iranians to take to the streets and declaring “help is on its way,” Trump appeared closer than he had been previously to calling for a limited military operation, the source said.

So it was with a degree of surprise that senior Trump administration officials listened, one day later, as the president declared “very important sources on the other side” had informed him the killing had stopped — suggesting there was now no imminent threat of military action.

At that point, US intelligence reporting had not indicated Iran stopped killing protestors. Many still believed military strikes were likely, and precautionary steps had already been taken to evacuate non-essential personnel from the largest US airbase in the region.

Some officials wondered if the president’s remarks were an effort at misdirection, akin to his noncommittal public statements in June directly before ordering strikes on Iranian nuclear sites. The White House said Thursday all options — including military ones — remained in play.

“The president and his team have communicated to the Iranian regime that if the killing continues, there will be grave consequences,” press secretary Karoline Leavitt said during a press briefing.

She added later that Trump was keeping his line of thought closely held.

“The truth is only President Trump knows what he’s going to do, and a very, very small team of advisors are read in to his thinking on that,” she said.

Behind the scenes, however, an urgent effort has been underway by some top US allies to forestall military action. And Trump, wary of taking action with an uncertain outcome that could put US service members in harm’s way, appeared receptive to the arguments, multiple US officials said.

Ahead of his appearance Wednesday afternoon, Trump spoke by phone with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who encouraged the president to hold off plans for an attack, a person familiar with the call said. Israelis didn’t believe the regime would fall quickly without a prolonged campaign, and there was concern over the state of the country’s missile defenses, which were extensively used during conflict between Israel and Iran last year, a different source familiar with the matter said.

The message carried added weight for the president, given Netanyahu’s past entreaties to Trump to join in Israeli military action against Iran. The New York Times first reported the conversation.

As Trump was speaking in the Oval Office, US partners in the Gulf — including Saudi Arabia and Qatar — already knew their push to deescalate the situation, even temporarily, had appeared to gain traction, despite the fact that US military assets were still moving in the region.

Privately, Trump officials had told some of those Gulf partners that the primary goal was to get Iran to stop the killing, and the president was looking for a sign that they intended to do so, according to a source familiar with the discussions.

In Saudi Arabia, Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Adel al-Jubeir told CNN’s Becky Anderson on Wednesday that “everybody is watching the situation very closely.”

“Everybody is hoping that the situation can be resolved in a manner that minimizes any kind of damage,” he said.

US officials have remained in close contact with foreign partners who have served as intermediaries with Iran, informing them ahead of time of plans to move US military planes in a way that signaled to Tehran the threat of military strikes was credible, the source said.

“They just want them to stop the killing,” the source added, noting teams of US and Gulf officials around the region were scrambling to prevent an imminent attack.

Ultimately, it was the Iranian announcement to postpone Soltani’s execution that ultimately served as the signal Trump was looking for, sources said.

“This is good news,” Trump wrote on social media Thursday, citing a report about the pause in executions. “Hopefully, it will continue!”

Trump had become fixated on Iran’s plans for executions after he was questioned about them Tuesday by CBS’s Tony Dokoupil during a tour of a Ford pickup truck plant in Michigan. He said if hangings went ahead, the US would take “strong action.” Later that evening, he reviewed video of past executions in Iran, which are sometimes carried out in public using tall cranes, a person familiar with the briefing said.

A day later, however, Trump seemed convinced by messages from Iran that plans to put protesters to death were off.

“The President understands today that 800 executions that were scheduled and supposed to take place yesterday were halted,” Leavitt said at the White House.

Still, lingering questions remain about whether Tehran intended to stop the killing more broadly. Iran’s foreign minister appeared on Fox News on Wednesday to downplay the regime’s broader violent crackdown, casting protestors who had already been killed as “terrorists” and foreign agitators, while offering little clarity on whether the killing would stop. Trump himself seemed to draw a distinction between killings that occurred during unrest and executions that occurred after, telling reporters of the violence in Iran, “They said people were shooting at them with guns, and they were shooting back. And you know, it’s one of those things. But they told me that there’ll be no executions, and so I hope that’s true.”

It was not until early evening on Wednesday when US officials appeared to finally know with relative confidence that Trump had decided not to strike, according to multiple sources across key agencies involved in the planning process for potential military operations.

US officials are not ruling out potential military action going forward and are continuing to prepare as such, including the movement of military assets, in order to give the president that option should he decide to go forward. The current approach is to wait and see, US officials said early Thursday.

The US military is moving a carrier strike group to the region, according to a source familiar the matter. Carrier strike groups normally include an aircraft carrier, guided missile cruisers, anti-aircraft warships, and anti-submarine destroyers or frigates. The nearest group, according to open-source intelligence, is the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group that was last reported to be in the South China Sea. Military planners typically move additional military assets into a region when tensions escalate.

“The president and his team are closely monitoring this situation, and all options remain on the table for the president,” Leavitt said.

Trump has remained acutely attuned to avoiding becoming embroiled in a broader conflict, or creating a scenario where Iran devolves into greater instability, US officials said. Some administration officials have warned that any sort of military action could force a longer commitment in Iran, something Trump has said that he wants to avoid.

Concerns about how Iran might retaliate also remain a factor in the administration’s calculations, as do questions about whether the military options currently available to Trump are likely to achieve the results he’s looking for, according to the officials.

Recent US intelligence reports indicate Iran is preparing options to target American bases in the Middle East, including those in Iraq and Syria, if Trump carries out military strikes, according to a US official and another source familiar with the matter. That threat of retaliation has factored into the Trump administration’s calculus, as have questions about the viability of military options the president has been presented to date.

Trump had indicated he favored options for a more limited strike, rather than more intensive operations that could risk dragging the US into a larger conflict, multiple sources said. But there are varying levels of confidence among national security officials about whether the limited strike options available to Trump would fundamentally change the situation on the ground in a way that shifts momentum in favor of the opposition, the sources said.

There are also indications the Iranian regime is walking its own tightrope as it seeks to balance controlling the protesters but not giving foreign governments, including the US, a reason to intervene.

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CNN’s Oren Liebermann contributed to this report.