Climate Matters: Federal cuts to climate research could affect everyday forecasts

As climate change continues to accelerate and amplify, it could be harder to analyze and predict future climate shifts, with potential upcoming reductions in federal funding for critical climate research labs.

The cuts were outlined in a leaked memo from the Trump administration that takes a broad swipe at funding for the Department of Commerce, including substantial reductions within the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

Overall, the memo proposes a 27% reduction in funding for NOAA, down from $6.1 billion annually to $4.5 billion. The most significant cuts will be on NOAA's Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research Program, which faces a 74% cut in federal funds.

This includes the nation's premier climate modeling lab, the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) at Princeton University, which produced the first hurricane models.

Kristina Dahl, the vice president for science at Climate Central, says these cuts to the GFDL could be catastrophic. "That will lead to critical losses in our country's ability to model climate and climate change over time. The GFDL is really one of the birthplaces of climate modeling, not just in the United States, but around the world." Dahl says.

The climate research conducted at Princeton and dozens of other institutions can improve future long-term climate forecasts and also affect day-to-day weather prediction. "Climate research is really critical for understanding what any given location around the globe can expect in terms of its weather." Dahl says, "This includes things like building climate models that incorporate everything we know about our climate system."

Climate labs are not the only thing at risk. Kristina also points out that reductions in staffing for Hurricane Hunters in particular can be devastating for hurricane research. Much of what is known about the rapid intensification of hurricanes comes from data gathered from planes that fly directly into hurricanes.

The budget cuts from the White House Office of Management and Budget are still only a proposal and need approval from Congress for fiscal year 2026.