Tracking afternoon showers and storms with isolated severe possible

TODAY: Expect a high in the low 80s, at least until rain begins this afternoon. We'll likely begin to see showers and storms overspread the region by this afternoon, from west to east. This will take some time, so many east of Columbia and Jefferson City will remain dry until after 3 p.m. Rain may begin in Columbia and Jefferson City as soon as late morning depending on development ahead of the cold front, but our best rain chances will be in the afternoon. Our severe threat is low, but pockets of greater instability will contribute to a chance for isolated strong storms embedded in the cluster of rainfall that overspreads the region tonight. Our concern would be for one or two storms to be capable of small to potentially severe hail, and some gusty winds. Anywhere from a quarter of an inch to a half inch of rain will be possible, with locally higher amounts from more convective storms.

TONIGHT: Rain chances will clear behind a cold front that passes through overnight. Rain will likely come to an end by sunrise for most early Friday.

EXTENDED: Friday is dry and cool, relatively speaking, with highs in the 70s. We'll remain in the 70s with a chance for showers and storms through midday Saturday, and again Sunday afternoon and evening. These short waves may adjust timing, so keep an eye on the weekend for that, but a larger trough builds in to bring a potentially more substantial area of low pressure on Monday. Monday night looks like it could bring a chance for strong thunderstorms. We'll be eyeing that, but Tuesday brings a secondary chance for thunderstorms, depending on how quickly the system clears. Needless to say, the forecast is active with near daily rain chances. Some may pick up as much as 1-2 inches of rain in the next 7 days, with a chance of locally higher rain totals.