Tracking potential for strong storms ahead of a cooldown
TODAY: Monday will start mostly sunny, before becoming partly cloudy. Temperatures will reach into the mid-80s making for another warm day, much like Sunday. Storms may develop after 6 p.m. along a warm front that lifts into the region tonight. Storms will likely be isolated in nature, with some potential for hail and gusty winds. These storms may produce locally heavy rain, and move slowly, but flooding is not expected.
TONIGHT: These storms will be tied to the front, and slowly lift north. These storms will be very isolated, and should wind down after 10 p.m. Then late overnight, from the west, showers and thunderstorms will drift into the region. These will likely remain below severe thresholds.
EXTENDED: Tuesday is an ABC 17 Stormtrack Weather Alert Day as storms have potential to become severe by the evening. Starting the day Tuesday, ongoing showers and thunderstorms through the morning are likely be sub-severe, but an isolated strong storm cannot be ruled out. This activity will be tied to a low level wind jet that exits to the northeast by the afternoon, potentially leaving clearing through this period. This may give the atmosphere time to "recharge" in a way. Allowing us to warm what will still be a moist environment into the low 80s, will lead to potential for instability. This will come as a "dry line", or sharp gradient in surface dew points, moves in from the west. The dry line will act as a cold front and potentially trigger storm development. If all of this comes together, the other ingredients will create for severe storm potential. This is conditional, as early morning rain could squash this severe potential, so severe weather is not guaranteed. Still, with the potential for all types of severe weather -including tornadoes- if storms do develop, we need to keep a close eye on Tuesday. The rest of the week is quiet, with temperatures cooling into the 70s Wednesday and Thursday, and then falling into the 60s by the weekend. We'll have a passing chance for showers on Thursday and Friday, but look dry the remainder of the period, which takes us through Sunday.
