Tracking rain chances and a sharp cool down
TODAY: Tuesday may be our last nearly 90 degree day this year. We have upper 80s forecast today ahead of a change that arrives tomorrow. Skies will start sunny, and gradually become cloudier through the day. This cloud cover may be enough to make us overcast this afternoon, and is a sign that moisture is moving in. Just how early and thick these clouds are will determine our temperatures, so we may end up a bit cooler.
TONIGHT: Temperatures will be even warmer for the clouds, as they'll act like a blanket, and the introduction of showers near midnight will add another element of temperature moderation, keeping us from cooling much. Expect potential for showers overnight, with better chances near sunrise Wednesday. Very little rain if any will come in this round, as rain will have to fight plenty of dry air. In fact, we may see radar returns Tuesday afternoon, but rain is unlikely, with an abundance of dry air at the mid-levels of the atmosphere.
EXTENDED: Better chances for rain arrive along a weak cold front on Wednesday night, but even this won't be much of a washout. Best rain totals will be south of I-70, nearest a center of low pressure where there will be better instability and greater odds of thunderstorms. This convective precipitation will output the best rain rates, leaving SOME near I-44 with potential for up to an inch, but this is expected to be the exception, not the rule. Most will see somewhere in the tenth to three quarters of an inch range, with those near I-70 and north falling on the low end of the spectrum. Temperatures on Wednesday maintain near 80, but mid-70s are more likely on Thursday as another cold front cuts the warmup short and introduces a reinforcement of cooler and drier air from the north. This is THE cold front that ushers in fall like weather. Expect dry weather and 60s through the weekend, with temperatures dropping into the 40s, and possibly even the upper 30s Saturday and Sunday morning. This may bring potential for frost in some localized northern communities depending on how the forecast evolves in the next few days.
