Insider Blog: Isolated strong storms with hail and heavy rain possible through tonight

SUNDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE (3PM):

Scattered thunderstorms have developed across much of Mid-Missouri this afternoon, bringing small hail, gusty winds, and heavy downpours as they are only moving at forward speeds of around 10-20mph. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 10:00 p.m. for areas in pink below for the potential of quarter size hail and 60 mph winds in some storms.

SETUP:

A weakening low pressure system sitting to our northwest today, may be enough of a disturbance to trigger storms in a moderately unstable airmass this afternoon. This means storm energy is enough to support thunderstorms, but not abundant, so there is still some uncertainty in the atmosphere's ability to maintain severe storms.

Additionally, wind shear in the atmosphere is low, meaning, these storms may go up, but they run the risk of collapsing back down on themselves quite quickly and remain unorganized. This may also limit any severe potential this afternoon. However, there is a window where ingredients come together just ahead of the weak disturbance of low pressure, and that is where The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted communities in a level 2 of 5 severe risk. This is where winds may be a bit more intense and more likely for that matter.

IMPACTS:

Our greatest risk is for damaging winds in the highlighted region.

Still, concerns for hail and and tornadoes are non-zero. Hail risk is low, and focuses in the same area.

The tornado risk is very low, and is confined to the area of greater risk, just ahead of the low.

TIMING:

Here's a look at The ABC17 STORMTRACK FUTURETRACK:

Generally, the greatest risk for storms will lie between 2 p.m. and 8 p.m. After sunset, storms will weaken below severe thresholds, and widely scattered showers and storms will linger into Monday. Storms on Monday will push south as the parent low with this system continues to collapse and drop southward.