Tracking the beginnings of an active pattern that promises more rain
TODAY: We're starting clear and calm this morning, as high pressure has shifted just east of the region. Winds are beginning to turn back out of the south, and this will essentially drive warmth, and bring in better chances for rain. A weak and unorganized surface low will approach tonight. Ahead of it, a round of showers is likely to brush the southwestern half of the region. Along and south of a line from Sedalia to Rolla, we expect showers to be likely after about 3 p.m. These showers pass by, and are dying down by 9-10 p.m. North of this line, we will have some extra cloud cover. Where rain falls, expect temperatures to be muted or fall shortly after reaching warm temperatures. Folks near the lake may reach upper 70s before falling as rain starts late in the afternoon. To the north, we'll keep upper 70s through the afternoon. Take note of these temps, as this has been a recent development in the forecast as rain the rain forecast has become more clear.
TONIGHT: Temperatures overnight will remain warm as more clouds, south winds, and even rain populate the forecast. The weak low passes by overnight, bringing scattered showers and storms areawide after midnight. Some localized heavy rainfall may produce more, but generally we expect less than a quarter of an inch of rain between now and Friday afternoon.
EXTENDED: Rain wraps up by early Friday afternoon, and we return to a south wind and partly cloudy skies. Depending on how long rain and clouds stick around, we may see a big swell in temperatures again, but for now, the forecast keeps Friday a bit cooler near 70 degrees. With continued south flow, temps hang in the upper 50s overnight, giving temps a good jump point on Saturday. With clouds clearing through midday, we expect temperatures to jump into the 80s, which will pose a problem with our CAP in the atmosphere. With our low level winds moving just quick enough, a break in the CAP along with enough moisture would set up the possibility of isolated strong storms. This is a threat that is low right now, but is something to watch if you have travel/outdoor plans Saturday afternoon. From here, the resolution of the forecast blurs a bit. We expect the possibility of scattered storms Sunday through Tuesday morning, with the pattern that is set up. Not everyday screams severe weather threat, but a summer like pattern with daily storm chances, and highs in the 80s will at least give us hope for big rain drops to aid us in the ongoing drought in mid-Missouri. Rain chances linger, but fall into the middle of next week.
