Tracking storms as we transition to cooler air
TODAY: Storms to our west this morning are going to start to spill into mid-Missouri this morning. Fortunately, we do not expect these storms to maintain their severe levels as they arrive. Some storms this morning will be ahead of the cold front approaching to the west, so through the morning, we'll have two rounds of rain and thunder. Areas along and north of a line from Sedalia to Herman (Jeff City included), will have a chance for periods of moderate to heavy rain and thunder with round one. This arrives near Brunswick and Marshall near 6 a.m., and pushes through the region, exiting to the east by 10 a.m. No severe weather is anticipated with round one. A cold front will arrive in our western counties around 10-11 a.m. The front will bring a limited chance at a few spotty showers and storms from the west, to near Columbia, Jefferson city, and Mexico by noon. This is when things begin to evolve, as the front begins to have a better shot at breaking through a capped atmosphere. As the front encounters better midday heating east of these communities, storms along the front will begin to intensify. After 1 p.m., storms will start to strengthen, becoming capable of hail and damaging winds. The severe threat is low with these, but nonzero in a narrow window for communities like Fulton, Linn, Montgomery City, Owensville, Rolla, and Ft. Leonard Wood. Storms will continue to strengthen as they push east, with the greatest severe risk coming in our eastern most counties, and eastward.
TONIGHT: Drier and cooler air rushes in tonight, dropping temps into the 40s.
EXTENDED: Waking up in the 40s, Friday starts crisp, and with a little sunshine, we'll be mild. Expect highs in the low 60s with breezy winds from the west in the afternoon. Saturday starts chillier, with lows in the upper 30s. This may pose some frost risk, but winds will limit it to local areas that are low lying and shielded from the breeze. Saturday's high is the coolest this week in the upper 40s and low 50s. The cool doesn't stop there, as we fall into the low 30s, near freezing, on Sunday morning. This will likely bring frost to widespread areas. Things then warm into daily highs in the 60s early next week. Chances for rain will be low, but are growing Monday night into Tuesday and Wednesday.
