Insider Blog: Heavy rain returns Thursday into Friday, dangerous heat by Sunday

After a quiet start to the week, we're in for a more active pattern to close out the work week, followed by intense heat that sets in by the weekend and carries over into next week.

We'll have a few factors at play with a heavy rain setup between Thursday and Friday. Gulf moisture continues to stream into the region as dew points will increase to the 70s for the end of the week as winds shift to the south.

Precipitable water values will be quite high, reaching near 2" between those two days. Precipitable water is the amount of liquid that would fall if all of the water vapor in a column of air from the top of the atmosphere to the ground were condensed.

A low pressure system working in from the northwest will drag a slow moving cold front into the area on Wednesday. It stalls out, allowing waves of energy to move through the jet stream along the boundary, triggering rounds of storms between Thursday and Friday. When storms repeatedly move over the same area, they're known as "training" storms, sort of like a line of cars on a locomotive moving along a straight path. Training storms often bring flooding concerns.

The Weather Prediction Center has much of the state in a slight risk for excessive rainfall on Thursday into Friday. A range of 1-3" of rain is possible, with isolated higher amounts possible.

Rain and storms come to an end on Saturday as the front lifts back north, shifting our focus from flooding to dangerous heat. A dome of high pressure builds to our south, pulling in moisture-rich air from the south as dew points rise into the 70s along with highs spiking into the 90s.

The heat index could reach the triple digits with readings between 100-103 through early next week.