Tracking storm chances today and again over the weekend
TODAY: Thursday brings back more moisture; both in the form of rain chances, but also greater humidity at the surface. Showers and storms have already developed along and ahead of a warm front that is lifting into the region. These will generally be weak storms at most, but as the warm front lifts into the region, storms that develop south of the front will have access to more energy, and will have a chance at becoming strong to severe. Our greatest threat will be hail with the strongest storms. This threat is very isolated, and most will not experience these stronger storms. With the warm up, dew points will climb back into the 50s. Highs are expected in the 70s.
TONIGHT: Temperatures fall to near 60 overnight, with mostly dry conditions. A complex of storms may form along the warm front, in the early evening. Then, as the low level jet ramps up overnight, some light showers may develop further south. This keeps at least low rain chances in the forecast through sunrise Friday.
EXTENDED: Outside of a rain chance Friday morning, tomorrow will be mostly dry and warm with a high temperature near 80. We are tracking a round of showers late Friday night that will be fixed mostly in the east. Then, Saturday starts with those showers in the east, but most of the day is dry. We'll have a chance for thunderstorms Saturday night in the west, but the intensity of these storms is uncertain. Instability of the atmosphere continues to fluctuate greatly in the forecast for late Saturday. Sunday is starting to come into more focus, with chances for thunderstorms looking likely early in the day. Exact timing and placement is uncertain, but the there is consistency in data that suggests a low pressure and attendant cold front bringing storm chances through the region in the first half of Sunday. From there, details are fuzzy regarding intensity of storms, but this system is expected to strengthen as it moves east through the afternoon. The question is whether or not that will include us, or will morning storms have severe potential. Stay tuned to the forecast for updates.
