Tracking a low that brings scattered thunderstorms and a snow chance
TODAY: Monday is a warmer day, with the return of better southerly flow and continued sunshine. Temperatures will likely reach 60s this afternoon, with winds from the south sustained around 10-15 mph, gusting as high as 25 mph.
TONIGHT: Gusts may increase tonight, as upper level winds will be strong moving in moisture and warmth ahead of our next area of low pressure. This will ultimately generate a chance for showers after midnight, and a chance for thunderstorms by early Tuesday.
EXTENDED: Tuesday morning after 3 a.m., we'll have scattered showers and thunderstorms, with the strongest storms capable of producing small hail. These storms will be what we consider "elevated" which will limit any chance at damaging winds. The best chance for this will be with another round that will arrive later in the morning and early afternoon. We'll see widespread thunderstorms moving in along or ahead of the cold front. This is important, because if it arrives ahead of the front, there may be time for our environment to "recover", so to speak, and allow for another chance of storms in the evening ahead of the true cold front. Either way, the severe threat will be low with both following rounds. With the round around late morning, these storms will likely be weakening with eastward extent. If we see any storms in the evening, this would be our best chance at "surface based" storms which would give us a chance at damaging winds or a isolated tornado or two. This is very conditional at the moment, and may not materialize. Our highest confidence is in the elevated morning storms that will pose a small hail risk. Otherwise, widespread rain is likely to impact all, with a good soaking rain in the forecast. It appears that the entire region stands to see at least a half inch of rainfall, with some seeing more than an inch. Snow showers are possible Wednesday morning, but accumulating snow is not likely. Highs in the 50s to near 60 on Tuesday will drop to near 40 Wednesday. Winds will be gusty Wednesday. We'll return to near 50 or warmer the rest of the week.
