Weather Alert Day: Damaging winds possible Thursday night

Thursday is an ABC17 Stormtrack Weather Alert Day, as severe storms appear possible Thursday evening. If the environment remains favorable for severe weather, damaging winds will be the greatest threat.

SETUP

A cold front is slowly sagging south, into mid-Missouri on Thursday. A mesoscale convective vortex, spurred further west on Wednesday night, will travel east along the front. This may bring some decaying and weakening showers to the region on Thursday morning. The wake of this system will eventually encounter a strengthening low-level jet somewhere over the region, likely developing new thunderstorms. Depending on the available storm energy in mid-Missouri, this could promote severe thunderstorms.

TIMING

Showers are possible during the morning. Remnant showers and associated cloud cover may linger through the morning and into the afternoon. How long it lingers will affect the likelihood of strong-to-severe storms in the evening. Storms are likely to redevelop in the evening, sometime around 3-5 p.m. Our greatest risk for severe weather will likely be from 5 p.m. to midnight as our low-level jet fires up in this time frame. This will help initiate and sustain storms. Depending on how the night progresses, we may keep a severe threat into Friday morning, but for now, we expect the greatest risk in the aforementioned evening window.

IMPACTS

Impacts may include hail and wind damage; the highest confidence is in the wind threat. Storms capable of 60-mph winds will be the greatest concern, especially if they organize into a complex. A more organized mesoscale convective system would increase our threat of damaging winds, but confidence in this is low.