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Insider Blog: Tracking chances for storms and high heat indices over the holiday weekend

After a gorgeous few days across Mid-Missouri this week, we're tracking some changes just in time for the holiday weekend.

Much more humid air starts to work in to the region with the upper level pattern becoming more zonal, meaning winds flowing west to east. To our north, a slow moving cold front will settle across Mid-Missouri by Friday afternoon. With plenty of instability and a front to trigger development, scattered storms are expected to pop up late in the day and become more widespread into Friday night.

A few storms may be strong with the potential of small hail and isolated 40-60 mph wind gusts near the frontal boundary, which is expected to sit near or along the I-70 corridor.

Showers and storms will be ongoing on Saturday morning, gradually thinning out by late afternoon. Rain and cloud cover keeps temperatures in the lower 80s on Saturday, but higher humidity leaves us with a heat index around 90 by late afternoon.

Another round of storms could develop Saturday night as low level winds from the west-southwest could aid in convection along the front. The front is expected to hang out over our area through Sunday with not much upper level steering to move it out of the area. Despite rain chances each day, we'll have plenty of dry time in between, especially on Sunday and Monday.

By Monday, the jet stream starts to push north with upper level high pressure, forcing the front to our north and opening the door to extreme heat. Rain chances will be slim on the Fourth of July, but temperatures reach the low 90s with a heat index between 100-103. We'll be dry for fireworks in the evening.

If you have outdoor plans this weekend, make sure to download the ABC 17 Stormtrack weather app to stay on top of the forecast. Keep an eye on the radar if you plan to be on the water. Our app will alert you to lightning in the area so you can safely get indoors.

Article Topic Follows: Weather
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Jessica Hafner

Jessica Hafner returned to ABC 17 News as chief meteorologist in 2019 after working here under Sharon Ray from 2014 to 2016.

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