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National Politics

Monmouth poll: Buttigieg, Biden, Sanders and Warren in tight race for New Hampshire primary

Former South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg, former Vice President Joe Biden, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren lead the field in the New Hampshire Democratic primary race, all within the top tier, according to a new poll from Monmouth University out Thursday.

Buttigieg receives 20% of support among likely New Hampshire voters, Biden with 19%, Sanders 18%, and Warren 15%, the poll’s margin of error of roughly 5 points.

Polling in New Hampshire this cycle has been quite volatile. Although all recent high-quality polls in New Hampshire show the same four candidates near the top and in double digits, there has been significant variation in the order in which those candidates finish. A CBS News/YouGov poll released Sunday found Sanders and Biden ahead of Warren and Buttigieg, while a MassINC/WBUR poll last month put Buttigieg, Biden and Sanders at the top, with Warren a bit behind.

In the Monmouth poll, under the 10% mark, Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar garners 6% support, Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard and businessman Tom Steyer both land at 4% and businessman Andrew Yang receives 3%. No other candidate is above 2% in the poll.

The qualification deadline for next week’s CNN/Des Moines Register debate is Friday. Buttigieg, Biden, Sanders, Warren and Klobuchar have already qualified for the debate. Monmouth provided no other candidate with a qualifying poll.

Just a few weeks out from the primary, Buttigieg and Sanders both saw a significant increase in their polling in the Granite State, while Biden and Warren have lost support since September (down 6 percentage points and 12 percentage points respectively).

Similar to their overall support, Warren and Biden have lost significantly in favorability as well. In September, Warren had a +55 favorability rating among likely Democratic voters in New Hampshire (favorability minus unfavorability); that fell to +37 in the new poll. Biden went from +42 in September to +33 now.

Meanwhile, Sanders has gained (up 6 points in favorability and down 5 in unfavorable). Buttigieg remained stable since September in favorability (62%), but has ticked up slightly in those who have an unfavorable opinion of him (from 12% to 17%).

Klobuchar, Yang and Steyer all saw an increase in their favorability ratings in the poll. Almost half of likely registered voters in New Hampshire have a positive view of Klobuchar (48%), up 7 points since September. Yang’s rating jumps up 22 points since Monmouth’s last poll, with a decrease in his unfavorability and fewer people who don’t know him. Steyer’s rating is also up 9 points.

Almost two thirds of likely voters (63%) in New Hampshire think Iowa and New Hampshire have the right amount of influence on who wins the party nominations for president. Additionally, 63% think it makes little difference in whether the Democratic Party nominates the best candidate.

However, almost half (46%) say that it would be a good idea to allow one or two other states to hold their primary on the same day as New Hampshire, a big move from their current status as second state in the nation to hold a nominating contest.

The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone from January 3 to 7, with 404 New Hampshire voters who are likely to vote in the Democratic presidential primary in February. The question results in this release have a margin of error of +/- 4.9 percentage points.